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SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBY) just made one of the boldest trades in the AI era ā selling $5.8 billion worth of Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares to fund a $22.5 billion commitment to OpenAI. On paper, it looks like Masayoshi Son is ditching the shovel-maker in the middle of a gold rush.
But this may be less a call on Nvidia's ceiling and more a bet that the next big AI boom won't be in GPUs ā it'll be in the software that runs on them.
Nvidia remains the undisputed backbone of the AI economy. Its chips still power nearly every large model training run, from OpenAI's GPT series to Anthropic's Claude. Yet even Nvidia seems to sense the plateau coming.
The company recently struck a high-profile partnership with Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) to co-develop AI-driven software infrastructure ā a move designed to capture value beyond silicon.
The Nvidia-Palantir alliance could be the fastest route to a $500 billion AI software business. And, Nvidia isn't waiting for hardware demand to cool; it's already laying claim to the layer above.
By contrast, SoftBank's pivot from Nvidia to OpenAI signals a sharper swing ā away from those who build AI tools toward those who teach them to think.
Son's move comes at a time when AI hardware rivals are mushrooming, each claiming to be "the next Nvidia." But none have matched its moat of CUDA software, ecosystem lock-in, and developer dominance. Selling Nvidia, in that context, isn't a statement of doubt ā it's desperation to fund Son's new obsession: OpenAI.
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Nvidia still makes the picks and shovels of the AI age. OpenAI makes the gold ā if it ever strikes it profitably. For investors, the choice between the two boils down to timing: Nvidia is the cash engine of AI today, OpenAI the optionality of AI tomorrow.
Son has made his pick. The market will decide whether he just sold stability for speculation, or hardware for the future of intelligence.
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