Upstart Posts Mixed Q3 Results, Transaction Volumes Miss Expectations; Analysts Cut Price Targets

Author: Priya Nigam | November 05, 2025 12:51pm

Shares of Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) nosedived in early trading on Wednesday, after it released mixed third-quarter results.

Here are some key analyst takeaways:

• Stephens analyst Kyle Joseph maintained an Equal-Weight rating, while reducing the price target from $55 to $40.
• Needham analyst Kyle Peterson reaffirmed a Buy rating, while cutting the price target from $82 to $56.
• BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic maintained a Neutral rating on the stock.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Stephens: Upstart reported adjusted net income of $32 million, versus Street expectations of $8 million. The company’s adjusted earnings are about 52 cents per share, topping consensus of 42 cents per share. Volumes grew 80% year-on-year to $2.85 billion but came in below expectations, he added.

The company guided to fourth-quarter and full-year revenues of $288 million and $1.04 billion. This represents 32% and 63% growth, respectively, the analyst stated. "We expect softer NT Transaction Volume growth, with a reacceleration beginning in mid-FY26," he further wrote.

Needham: Upstart reported revenue of $277.1 million, below consensus of $279.6 million, Peterson said. Although revenue from fees grew 54.3% year-on-year to $258.5 million, it missed the consensus of $275.7 million, "as UPST’s underwriting model responded to a challenging macro environment by raising pricing and reducing approval rates," he wrote.

Net interest income of $18.6 million was significantly higher than Needham's estimate of $5 million, driven by a strong credit performance and elevated loan balances, the analyst stated. The company guided to fourth-quarter revenue of $288 million, below consensus of $303.6 million, he added.

BTIG: Upstart reported transaction volumes 13% below estimates and fee revenue 6% short of expectations, Caintic said. "October 2025 originations still appear to be impacted by the elevated Upstart Macro Index (UMI) levels seen in 3Q25," he wrote.

The higher UMI led Upstart’s model to increase loan interest rates, which impacted conversion and lowered transaction volumes, the analyst stated. Although Upstart delivered an EBITDA and earnings beat in the third quarter, the fourth-quarter guidance reflects lower contribution margins, he added.

Price Action: Shares of Upstart Holdings had declined by 14.34% to $39.61 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

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