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Private-sector data for October payrolls revealed that U.S. businesses saw a rebound in employment numbers after two months of job losses, but the scale of the recovery remains modest and far from signaling a strong labor resurgence.
The ADP National Employment Report showed that 42,000 jobs were added last month, a clear reversal from the 32,000 jobs lost in September and exceeding economists' consensus forecast of 25,000.
Yet the October figure pales in comparison to the same month last year, when private firms added 221,000 workers—underscoring how far the labor market has slowed in 2025.
"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year," said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist.
"Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced," she added.
The rebound in hiring wasn't broad-based, as gains were concentrated in just a few sectors. Trade, transportation and utilities led with 47,000 new jobs, followed by education and health services, which added 26,000, and financial activities, up by 11,000.
In contrast, several key industries continued to shed jobs. Professional and business services lost 15,000 positions, information dropped by 17,000, leisure and hospitality declined by 6,000, and other services saw a reduction of 13,000 jobs.
Among goods-producing industries, the recovery was modest. Natural resources and mining added 7,000 jobs and construction rose by 5,000, but manufacturing employment slipped by 3,000, indicating a mixed picture across the industrial economy.
Meanwhile, pay trends remained steady. Year-over-year wage growth held at 4.5% for job-stayers, while job-changers saw a slight uptick to 6.7%, up from 6.6% the prior month.
This continued stagnation in wage growth adds to evidence that labor market supply and demand have reached a tentative balance, cooling fears of wage-driven inflationary pressure.
Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, official labor market data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics remains paused.
That gives the ADP report increased significance as policymakers and market participants seek reliable indicators to gauge real-time labor market conditions.
While the October rebound offers some relief, the overall tone of the report reinforces the narrative of a gradually cooling labor market.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates again in December, with futures markets – as tracked by the CME FedWatch tool – pricing in a 70% probability of a 25 basis-point cut, which would mark a third consecutive easing.
Equities were essentially unchanged in premarket trading on Wednesday, following a two-day selloff that weighed heavily on AI-linked tech stocks.
Investors appear to be digesting mixed signals: a labor market that's stabilizing, but still too soft to derail the Fed's easing path.
In premarket action, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was flat. Meanwhile, shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) are expected to open 3% lower, despite beating earnings expectations.
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