Analyst Optimistic On Affirm Q1 Despite October Spending Deceleration

Author: Lekha Gupta | November 04, 2025 01:48pm

JP Morgan analyst Reginald L. Smith reiterated an Overweight rating on Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) with a price forecast of $94, ahead of first quarter earnings release on November 5th.

Analyst View

The analyst writes that Card issuers and BNPL providers signal stable to accelerating spending, which should lead to another quarterly gross merchandise value (GMV)/revenue beat for the company.

However, intra-quarter spend and credit trends will be the key focus, as October data showed some deceleration in spending, raising investor concern amid labor market softness, the analyst adds.

Also Read: Affirm (AFRM) Stock Slides Amid Hawkish Fed Commentary

Nevertheless, Smith says they are confident in Affirm's credit management capabilities and the growth potential of BNPL, which should continue to drive strong, profitable expansion.

Notably, last week, Affirm expanded its long-term capital partnership with a $750 million deal with New York Life to strengthen its consumer financing capacity.

Estimates

Although street estimates are near the top of management's first-quarter revenue guidance of $855 million–$885 million (JPM/Consensus: $871 million/$884 million), the recent pullback makes the analyst cautiously optimistic for the quarter.

The analyst sees potential upside to the Street's first-quarter FY26 GMV estimates, which currently project a 7-point deceleration, driven by modest acceleration in broader e-commerce and discretionary spend.

Meanwhile, Street projects second-quarter FY26 GMV growth of 29% year-over-year, down 7 points sequentially, reaching $13.1 billion, while the analyst forecasts 28% year-over-year growth to $13.0 billion.

Price Action: AFRM shares are up 0.27% at $72.28 at the last check on Tuesday.

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Posted In: AFRM