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DoorDash, Inc. (NASDAQ:DASH) is positioned to outpace Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) on free cash flow, powered by U.S. cash generation, Deliveroo-led international expansion and SevenRooms, with double-digit GOV and margin gains expected as robotaxi uncertainty clouds rideshare, according to JP Morgan analyst.
Following a period of restriction and ‘Not Rated' designation, JP Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth upgraded DoorDash to an Overweight rating from Neutral, with a price forecast of $325 from $175.
Anmuth says DoorDash is the No. 1 U.S. food-delivery player with a share of over 60% and steady gains in its core restaurant unit.
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He adds that strong free cash flow from U.S. restaurants is being reinvested in building long-term bets, such as New Verticals and international expansion.
Precisely, the recent deals broaden DoorDash's addressable market, with Deliveroo extending its reach across Western Europe and the Middle East.
Given entrenched rivals, the analyst expects DoorDash to plow profits back into scaling—prioritizing customer acquisition and a stronger subscription to lift order frequency.
Over time, the analyst sees DoorDash transplanting its ops and logistics playbook to raise Deliveroo's efficiency.
Anmuth also notes that Wolt's CEO, Miki Kuusi, taking the helm at Deliveroo should alleviate concerns about U.S. leaders getting bogged down in integration and should facilitate a smooth handoff.
More broadly, the analyst says local delivery is consolidating around a few global winners with profit pools in major markets that can fund better customer value and investment elsewhere.
The analyst highlights another key buy, SevenRooms, a CRM/marketing/operations platform for restaurants and hospitality, and the "Going Out" rollout, which gives restaurants multi-channel customer insights and helps DoorDash tap marketing budgets.
The analyst models DoorDash's GOV compounding at roughly 17% annually from 2025 to 2030, with steady margin gains, and EBITDA growing about 27% per year over five years.
Anmuth contends DoorDash should trade above his 17.5x 2027 free cash flow target multiple for Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) because, by his estimates, DoorDash's free cash flow will compound at about 30% over the next five years versus roughly 16% for Uber, and rising robotaxi risk clouds the rideshare sector.
DASH Price Action: DoorDash shares were down 0.15% at $273.12 at the time of publication on Tuesday. The stock is approaching its 52-week high of $285.08, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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