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Metaplanet Inc. (OTCQX:MTPLF) shares fell to $3.45 on Tuesday, extending a months-long slide that has erased 70% of the company's value and pushed its market capitalization below the worth of its Bitcoin reserves.
The Tokyo-based company, once hailed as Japan's equivalent to Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR), is now confronting a sharp reversal in its fortunes.
After pivoting from hospitality to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) investment in April 2024, Metaplanet's stock initially soared as traders embraced its crypto-treasury strategy.
That optimism has since evaporated. The company's market value and debt combined now total less than the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its market-to-net-asset-value ratio (mNAV) briefly falling to 0.99 on Tuesday.
This indicates that investors are valuing the firm below its own Bitcoin reserves which is a rare scenario for listed crypto-treasury firms.
Metaplanet Inc. Price Dynamics (Source: TradingView)
On the charts, Metaplanet Inc. continues to extend its decline within a well-defined descending channel, with price now testing the lower boundary near $3.40.
The stock remains capped under the 20-day EMA at $4.01, reinforcing the dominance of sellers.
Momentum indicators confirm the weakness, with RSI hovering near 34, reflecting persistent bearish pressure but nearing oversold territory.
A sustained break below $3.30 could expose the next downside zone near $2.80, while recovery attempts will face immediate resistance at $4.00 and stronger hurdles at $5.00.
The broader trend remains negative unless price reclaims the mid-channel and key moving averages.
Mark Chadwick, a Japan equity analyst writing on Smartkarma, said Metaplanet's collapse reflects "a popping of a bubble" in crypto-treasury stocks — companies that gained attention for holding digital assets on their balance sheets as proxies for direct Bitcoin exposure.
"While the euphoria has cooled, some Bitcoin believers might see this as a good moment to buy the stock cheap," Chadwick said.
Despite the selloff, Metaplanet continues to accumulate Bitcoin.
Company filings show holdings of more than 30,000 BTC, valued around $3.4 billion.
In September, shareholders approved an international equity sale that raised about $1.4 billion to fund additional Bitcoin purchases.
Metaplanet's collapse is more than just a single stock story.
It shows how markets are starting to discount even hard Bitcoin holdings when confidence in the corporate wrapper breaks down.
Japan's "Bitcoin treasury" was once seen as a clean equity proxy for BTC exposure, but the crash below its reserve value flips that logic on its head.
For institutional investors, the message is clear: Bitcoin itself may be trusted, but listed companies using it as a balance-sheet strategy are no longer guaranteed a premium.
This disconnect could redefine how Wall Street and Tokyo price future corporate crypto treasuries compared with direct Bitcoin holdings.
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