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Even as global housing markets show signs of cooling, Miami and Dubai top the UBS 2025 Global Real Estate Bubble Index, signaling elevated risks of property bubbles.
Miami exhibits the highest bubble risk among 21 major cities worldwide, followed by Tokyo and Zurich, while Dubai and Madrid recorded the strongest year-on-year increases, according to UBS last week
"Broad exuberance has faded, with average bubble risk in major cities falling for a third straight year," said Matthias Holzhey, lead author of the study at UBS Global Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office.
Despite slower growth in recent quarters, Miami's luxury oceanfront condominiums remain in strong international demand, particularly from Latin America.
Dubai's real estate market has surged by roughly 50% over the past five years, fueled by population growth, limited supply, and rising offshore investment competition.
Other cities flagged for elevated risk include Los Angeles, Geneva, and Amsterdam, while London, Paris, and Milan remain low-risk markets.
Hong Kong remains the least affordable city, requiring about 14 years of income for a modest apartment, with Tokyo, Paris, and London also facing affordability pressures.
After three years of mortgage rates above 6%, American homebuyers had started adjusting to elevated borrowing costs, according to the TurboHome-ResiClub Housing Sentiment Survey in July 2025.
Willingness to accept a 6% mortgage rose from 41% earlier in the year to 52%, while most buyers still preferred rates between 4.5% and 5.5%, signaling strong pent-up demand.
Expectations for home prices had softened, with 55% of homeowners anticipating flat or declining prices over the next year, up from 35% in early 2025, though only 16% expected significant drops.
Economic signals such as a cooling labor market and rising inflation reinforced this cautious sentiment.
Real estate ETFs like iShares Mortgage Real Estate (NYSE:REM) and Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE) have underperformed over the past three years, reflecting the market's subdued activity.
Markets priced a high probability of upcoming Fed rate cuts, suggesting that a dip toward 5% could reignite housing transactions and revive related stocks.
Earlier this month, Bettors on Polymarket had assigned a 34% probability to the President Donald Trump administration declaring a housing emergency in 2025.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had indicated that the administration "may" declare a national housing emergency in the fall, citing ongoing constraints from high borrowing costs and limited housing supply.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Garun Studios/Shutterstock
