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Warren Buffett might have his mystery stock, but in the futuristic skies of electric air taxis, the mystery is which U.S. eVTOL player — Joby Aviation Inc (NYSE:JOBY) or Archer Aviation Inc (NYSE:ACHR) — will cross the Federal Aviation Administration finish line first, and who will dominate the early market.
At the JPMorgan Auto Conference, analyst Bill Peterson hosted fireside chats with executives from both companies — and while their destination is similar, Peterson's takeaways reveal sharply different flight plans.
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Joby is riding the Trump drone executive order tailwind, which created a Federal Task Force and an eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, notes Peterson. While the company is upbeat about faster FAA response times, Joby remains cautious whether certification timelines will move up. The company still targets TIA testing by early 2026 — a stage every entrant has successfully passed, Joby emphasized.
He highlighted Toyota's role as "pivotal" in scaling Joby's manufacturing, with Marina facility capacity now at ~24 aircraft per year. The recent acquisition of Blade's Passenger business also caught Peterson's eye, giving Joby exclusive terminal access in New York City and a smooth customer booking integration.
On defense, Joby's tie-up with L3Harris Technologies Inc (NYSE:LHX) and plans for a hybrid demo aircraft this fall could act as catalysts into 2026.
Archer is similarly energized by the drone executive order, targeting demo deployments in 2026 and scaled ops by 2028 for the Los Angeles Olympics, says Peterson. Certification by 2027 is possible, with Archer using dual CTOL and VTOL testing to appeal to civil and defense clients.
With Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA) as contract manufacturer and major shareholder, Archer aims for a 50-aircraft annual run rate across Georgia and Silicon Valley. Unlike Joby's Blade strategy, Archer plans to leverage publicly accessible heliports in New York city and partner with existing operators. On defense, partnerships with Anduril and acquisitions of MCC and Overair position Archer to deliver stealthier, longer-range hybrid VTOLs for sizable — though "lumpy" — government contracts.
So, while Joby's approach leans on acquisitions and polished market entry, Archer's hinges on flexible operations and manufacturing discipline.
For investors, the next lift-off may hinge less on FAA dates — and more on who captures lasting market share.
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Photos: Courtesy Joby and Archer
