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Bulls were on parade last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading the rally higher. It finished up 2.30% on the week, but fell just short of a new all-time high. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs, and finished up 1.72% and 1.62%, respectively. We're starting to see greed creep back into the tape, and I'm not ruling out a blowoff top at this point. Still, any dips that follow through should be bought, especially on the crypto side of the market. Stimulus is coming, as the only way out of this fiscal mess is to grow our way out of it. We have an abbreviated report this week due to the holiday. Take some time to rest! It's very important especially in these markets.
It seems to be a recurring theme over the past several months where the ADP and BLS employment reports show completely different narratives. This happened again last week where the ADP report showed a weakening labor market, but BLS showed a resilient one.
So, what's the real story? All I know is I'm seeing more reports of companies laying off workers and hearing stories about people finding it more difficult to find work. Part of it has to do with artificial intelligence, but part of it is also cost-saving measures from companies.
We've been looking at September for the next rate cut. I would forget about a rate cut in July at this point. Between the new budget bill and rate cuts on the horizon, it looks like this market is about to get pumped to another level.
We have FOMC minutes this week, but don't let the absence of other data releases fool you. I'm looking right at the July 9 tariff deadline, which could potentially be a source for the market's next round of volatility.
Some deals have been struck although there appears to be some lingering issues with Japan and the European Union especially. At the end of the day, any exporting nation wants and basically needs to sell to the U.S. market.
And don't even get me started on the delusional idea that tariffs are inflationary. Nobody believes taxes are inflationary, and tariffs are a tax. You can agree or disagree with the idea of tariffs, but never let political biases creep into your portfolio. It's job is to make money, not be right.
Overall, the state of the stock market's sectors continues to point to bullish momentum and more upside. All of the right sectors continue to lead, and save for consumer discretionary (XLY), all of the right sectors continue to lag year-to-date.
Eight of the eleven S&P sectors are solidly in positive territory year-to-date. Industrials (XLI) are still on top of the throne, but we saw quite a rebound from the communications (XLC) sector in recent sessions.
Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples (XLP) are right in the middle of the pack, which is another boon for bulls. If either of these sectors, or even healthcare (XLV) starts to climb in the next week or two, we can start preparing for a market pullback. Until then, ride the wave.
| 1 week | 3 Weeks | 13 Weeks | 26 Weeks |
| Basic Materials | Technology | Technology | Industrials |
Editor's Note: This tape's all about growth – for now.
I want to stack the two most important sectors of the moment this week to see where the money is flowing. Industrials (XLI) have been the leader year-to-date, but technology (XLK) has been the leader since the April 7 bottom.
This is reflected in the ratio chart between XLI and XLK, as it topped out in April and has been trending lower ever since. The big question now is whether we see a wedge formation or a channel, as these two scenarios suggest two very different outcomes.
If this is a channel, I expect XLK to keep outperforming XLI, but if this is a wedge, then we'll see XLK slow down and XLI reassume leadership. For the overall market, XLK leading is more bullish.
You know what they say – credit leads – and when we see leadership from junk bonds (HYG), it's hardly a bearish signal, especially when it comes to its performance against 3-7 Year Treasuries (IEI).
Note how credit spreads blew out during the correction into the April 7 low. If anything, that was the event of the year, and the likelihood of that happening again in the next 6 months is not very high.
With respect to the longer-term trend, it was a higher-low, but it did take out the low from summer 2024. So, at this point, it's new all-time highs or bust for this ratio. If we're going to be bullish, we don't want to see this ratio turn sharply lower.
Junk bonds trade like stocks more than bonds, hence their "junk" status. But when it's leading, it suggests a calm sailing environment. Bull markets climb a wall of worry, and the press does a great job at keeping people worried as all the signals point to higher prices ahead.
Junk bonds give us an idea on the state of liquidity. When market conditions worsen, people seek safety in Treasuries and higher-quality names. Obviously, junk bonds do not fall into that category of quality.
Don't be surprised if we finally see a liftoff in the price of Bitcoin in the coming days. It continues to consolidate above the critical $100,000-$105,00 support level that acted as major resistance throughout early 2025. Above this key technical level, bulls are in control of this market.
The duration of this wedge formation lends itself to the idea of a massive move coming. the very least, we're looking for it to go above 130,000-135,000, but I want to see a new all-time high in the coming days first.
It's still in an uptrend, but has spent the past several weeks consolidating near the highs, which as a rule, is bullish price action. There's no need to complicate things here, although I am starting to look at some other coins for even more upside. Stay tuned.
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