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Markets saw a brief reprieve Friday as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge came in below expectations, tempering concerns of mounting volatility after this week's hawkish policy pivot.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in November, missing the 2.5% forecast. On a monthly basis, the gauge slowed to 0.1%, down from 0.2% in October and below projections for steady growth.
Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, remained at 2.8% annually, slightly under the 2.9% estimate. The monthly core reading also decelerated to 0.1% from 0.3%, undershooting the 0.2% forecast.
Even with Friday's softer inflation print, traders seemed hesitant to enter a buy-everything mode after the sharp volatility seen earlier this week.
The slightly tempered reaction suggests a degree of caution remains entrenched among investors as they assess the Fed's hawkish tone.
New York Fed President John Williams, interviewed by CNBC, reiterated that “monetary policy continues to be restrictive.”
Williams described the recent inflation data as “encouraging news,” highlighting further disinflation progress. Yet, he indicated that “we’re still not to our 2% goal” and reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to achieving that target.
“I think the economy is a good place and most importantly for me, monetary policy is well positioned,” he added.
U.S. equity markets saw modest gains following November’s softer-than-expected inflation data, as investor caution lingered after the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift earlier this week.
Bond markets saw some relief as Treasury yields fell following several days of sharp increases.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped five basis points to 4.70%, lifting the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) by 0.8%. This marks a partial recovery after the ETF plunged more than 3% over the previous two sessions.
Yields on shorter-dated two-year Treasury notes fell by seven basis points.
The U.S. dollar index — as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) — weakened by 0.3%.
Gold prices rose, as the precious metal benefited from lower Treasury yields and the declining dollar. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) increased by 0.7%.
In the cryptocurrency market, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:IBIT) trimmed premarket losses to 0.9%, as the largest cryptocurrency surged back above $95,000 levels.
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