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Following KeyBanc Capital Markets‘ quarterly supply-chain findings, the firm’s semiconductor analyst John Vinh revisited his estimates for the chip stocks in his coverage universe.
Mixed outlook: Supply-chain checks showed mixed results for the various segments within the semiconductor industry, said Vinh in a note released Monday. Analog saw “signs of life” within China and muted performance elsewhere, he said, adding that the first quarter will likely mark the bottom.
The PC market is set to see roughly flattish performance for the year, the analyst said. In the smartphone market, iPhone demand weakened in China, while it was stronger in India, Vinh said.
The analyst said iPhone shipments are still expected to remain largely flat at about 230 million units for the year as weaker iPhone 15 demand is being offset by stronger demand for legacy models, including the iPhone 12/14 in India and also in China.
Also, high-end Android phone demand remained healthy, offsetting the potential weakness in the mid-and low-end market, he added.
Artificial intelligence-related demand remained robust, the analyst said. “AI remains robust as expected, despite plenty of cross-currents, while CoWoS capacity is expected to double in 2025,” he said. The analyst noted that server supply-chain feedback suggested a slight improvement in demand in the first quarter due to a meaningful improvement in the overall supply and lead times for Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) H100 GPUs.
TSMC was looking to double its CoWoS capacity in 2025 to 600K interposers, while Nvidia was also planning to double its capacity at TSMC to 300K interposers, Vinh said. “This would suggest that generative AI semiconductor revenues are expected to more than double in 2025,” he said.
See Also: Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks
Stock Implications: Vinh said the channel checks are:
Analyst Action:
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) edged up 0.12% at $221.90, according to Benzinga Pro data. The exchange-traded fund has gained 15.5% for the year-to-date period.
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