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Goldman Sachs analysts are identifying a substantial opportunity in the manufacturing sector for new obesity therapeutics as demand escalates for these treatments.
Goldman Sachs projects the global obesity market to potentially reach $100 billion by 2030, with a more optimistic outlook suggesting it could expand up to $400 billion.
Dominant market players like Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) and Eli Lilly And Company (NYSE:LLY) conduct much of their production in-house but are expected to increasingly outsource this business unit to meet the burgeoning demand for weigh-loss medications.
“We estimate the long term potential market size for GLP-1 manufacturing is ~$10bn and the role of outsourcing will likely increase with volumes.”
Despite the current dominance of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in the obesity treatment market, Goldman Sachs believes “increasing volumes along with new entrants into the space will lead to about 50% outsourcing and a about $5bn opportunity for outsourced providers in 2030.” Both companies have announced capacity expansions to meet growing demand.
According to Goldman Sachs, Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, approved as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for chronic weight management, is forecasted to achieve around $55 billion in sales by 2030, potentially becoming one of the best-selling pharmaceuticals ever.
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