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Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL) shares are trading higher Friday after Stifel maintained its Buy rating on the stock and raised its price target from $25 to $26.
The Details:
Stifel believes Carnival's recent underperformance compared to peers is a buying opportunity and sees the company in a position to raise its full-year guidance when it reports later in March.
Norwegian Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NCLH) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) both reported better-than-expected earnings at the end of February and raised guidance. The cruise lines cited increased travel demand and better-than-anticipated bookings.
Carnival shares are trading higher on above-average volume Friday. According to data from Benzinga Pro, the stock is trading around its 50-day moving average of $16.36, and 8.57% of available shares are being sold short.
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Predicting the future in stock prices over long periods of time is challenging. Wall Street analysts use complex models that take into account interest rates, economic growth, competitive advantages, management teams and historical profitability, among a host of other factors.
If, as an investor, you want to assume most of the major factors remain stable, you can use trend analysis as a helpful tool. Using a longer term trend line or historical performance of the stock, you can aim to forecast a stock's annual rate of return.
For Carnival (NYSE:CCL), over the past 5 years, it's annualized stock performance is -21.66%, and if you assume that trend continues for another 5 years, you can expect a stock to trade at $4.83.
Using a trend line (see how to perform this function here), If you choose to use a trend line, connect your two points and look into the future to the point in time in which you're curious. Once you've identified that stock price, you may want to consider what type of conditions would need to exist for the stock to justify the share price – be it an outside influence or managerial decision making.
CCL Price Action: According to Benzinga Pro, Carnival shares are up 4.18% at $16.32 at the time of publication.
Image: Ed Junkins from Pixabay
