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Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL) shares are trading higher Tuesday. The stock may be moving in sympathy with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Ltd. (NYSE:NCLH) following its earnings report and upbeat outlook.
The Details:
Norwegian reported mixed fourth-quarter results before the market open and issued upbeat 2024 guidance based on "exceptional demand."
Last week Royal Caribbean Group also raised its 2024 guidance and said demand and bookings have exceeded expectations.
Cruise line stocks are rallying Tuesday on the heels of the earnings report and upbeat outlooks. Carnival shares are climbing on heavy volume that has already surpassed its 100-day average volume, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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Predicting the future in stock prices over long periods of time is challenging. Wall Street analysts use complex models that take into account interest rates, economic growth, competitive advantages, management teams and historical profitability, among a host of other factors.
If, as an investor, you want to assume most of the major factors remain stable, you can use trend analysis as a helpful tool. Using a longer term trend line or historical performance of the stock, you can aim to forecast a stock's annual rate of return.
For Carnival, over the past 5 years, it's annualized stock performance is -23.19%, and if you assume that trend continues for another 5 years, you can expect a stock to trade at $4.25.
Using a trend line (see how to perform this function here), If you choose to use a trend line, connect your two points and look into the future to the point in time in which you're curious. Once you've identified that stock price, you may want to consider what type of conditions would need to exist for the stock to justify the share price – be it an outside influence or managerial decision making.
CCL Price Action: According to Benzinga Pro, Carnival shares are up 7.07% at $15.83 at the time of publication.
Image: Ed Junkins from Pixabay
