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Business Outlook
While the Company saw record results in the third quarter after the late start to the wildfire season, the last two weeks of September brought cooler, wet weather to the U.S. and Canada. With limited wildfire activity continuing in the first part of the seasonally slower fourth quarter, we are now expecting 2023 to be the shortest North American wildfire season in the past 10 years. As a result, we are reducing our previous annual 2023 revenue guidance range from $84 million to $96 million to a range of $66 million to $68 million.
Given the Company's largely fixed cost structure and seasonality, Bridger typically generates positive Adjusted EBITDA in the second and third quarters each year, during the bulk of the wildfire season and negative Adjusted EBITDA in the first and fourth quarters. In response to the shorter 2023 wildfire season, Bridger has identified reductions to its largely fixed cost structure that will benefit the fourth quarter and the full year 2024. Even with these cuts, the Company expects to report negative Adjusted EBITDA of $10.0 million to $11.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and now projects Adjusted EBITDA of $18 million to $19 million for the full year 2023 compared to its prior estimate of $37 million to $45 million. These estimates assume wildfire conditions will remain unchanged for the remainder of the fourth quarter of 2023 and additional aircraft will not be deployed.
Looking at Bridger's standalone operations for the full year 2024, Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to range from $35 million to $51 million on revenue of $70 million to $86 million. This guidance excludes any impact of Bridger's acquisition of the Super Scoopers to be sold by the Spanish government but includes the impact of expected reductions to the Company's largely fixed cost structure, which are anticipated to total approximately $16 million annually.
Below is a breakout of revenue and Adjusted EBITDA on a quarterly basis to demonstrate the seasonality of the Company's business.
| (in thousands) | |||||||||||||||||
| Actual | Projected | Projected Annual |
Projected | ||||||||||||||
| Q1-2023 | Q2-2023 | Q3-2023 | Q4-2023 | FY-2023 | Cost Savings | FY-2024 | |||||||||||
| Revenues | $ | 365 | $ | 11,615 | $ | 53,619 | $ 400 - 2,400 | $ 66,000 - 68,000 | $ 70,000 - 86,000 | ||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | (10,671 | ) | 960 | 38,738 | (10,000) - (11,000) | 18,000 - 19,000 | 16,000 | 35,000 - 51,000 | |||||||||
| Actual |
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| Q1-2022 | Q2-2022 | Q3-2022 | Q4-2022 | FY-2022 | |||||||||||||
| Revenues | 69 | 12,754 | 32,453 | 1,112 | 46,388 | ||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | $ | (8,953 | ) | $ | 2,011 | $ | 19,121 | $ | (8,517 | ) | $ | 3,662 | |||||
Definitions and reconciliations of net loss to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA, are attached as Exhibit A to this release.
Posted In: BAER
