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The ConvexityShares Daily 1x SPIKES Futures ETF (NYSE:SPKX) fell about 5% on Monday, ahead of several key economic data sets, which will offer traders and investors clues as to whether the Federal Reserve will apply another rate hike next month.
The ETF: SPKY is a 1.5X leveraged fund that tracks the SPIKES Futures Short-Term Index and measures volatility in broad-based equities in a similar way to ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF (NYSE:UVXY), which tracks the movement of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index.
For every 1% daily movement in the SPIKES Futures Short-Term Index, the SPKY fund seeks to move 1.5%, meaning that it’s for short-term trades and should not be held for a long period of time.
The market is currently pricing in a pause for September, with an 80% probability the central bank will keep rates steady. At the Fed’s subsequent meeting in November, however, money markets see a 61% chance that the central bank will reinstate its tightening campaign.
If the Fed applies a rate hike next month, the stock market is likely to become volatile, which could offer upside in SPKY. Further, the ETF signaled at least a short-term bounce could be on the horizon by printing a hammer candlestick on Monday.
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The SPKY Chart: SPKY negated its uptrend on Friday by printing a lower high at the $5.60 mark. On Monday, the ETF formed a lower low, which confirmed a new downtrend is likely in the cards.
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