The SPY Swings Wildly Following Hawkish Comments At Jackson Hole Symposium: This ETF Tracks Stock Market Volatility

Author: Melanie Schaffer | August 25, 2023 12:29pm

The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) was volatile Friday after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s opening remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium indicated the central bank may continue to raise interest rates and hold them at a restrictive level until inflation falls to its 2% goal.

The volatile price action follows a bearish day on Thursday, which saw the market ETF drop about 1.4% on high volume, falling through a potential bear flag pattern on the daily chart.

The move caused volatility in the stock market to increase, with the ConvexityShares Daily 1.5x SPIKES Futures ETF (NYSE:SPKY) spiking up almost 9% from its low-of-day.

SPKY is a 1.5x leveraged fund, which tracks the SPIKES Futures Short-Term Index and measures volatility in broad-based equities in a similar way to ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF (NYSE:UVXY), which tracks the movement of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index.

For every 1% daily movement in the SPIKES Futures Short-Term Index, the SPKY fund seeks to move 1.5%, meaning that it’s for short-term trades and should not be held for a long period of time.

On Friday, SPKY was trading slightly higher at one point, attempting to break up through a resistance level near the $5.60 mark but on low volume, which indicates consolidation.

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The SPKY Chart: Although SPKY negated its downtrend on Thursday by forming a higher low above $4.91, the price action on Friday may serve as a lower high, which may give investors pause. After the big bullish move in the ETF on Thursday, sideways consolidation may be needed prior to the ETF either confirming a new uptrend or continuing in a downtrend.

• Momentum in SPKY has been increasing, with its relative strength index (RSI) forming a series of higher lows. The rising momentum indicates traders have an increased interest in the ETF.
• When SPKY surged higher on Thursday and popped slightly higher again on Friday, the ETF rejected the 50-day simple moving average as resistance and fell back under the area. If the ETF can regain the 50-day SMA over the next few trading days, it will give traders bullish on volatility more confidence going forward.
• SPKY has resistance above at $5.59 and at $6.68 and support below at $4.97 and at $4.55.

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Posted In: SPKY SPY UVXY