Gold Rises Higher As Investors Weigh Recession Probability: This ETF Offers 2X Leverage

Author: Melanie Schaffer | June 05, 2023 12:16pm

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (NYSE:NUGT) was rising more than 1% on Tuesday in tandem with spot gold, which was moving about 0.5% higher, possibly on new warnings a recession may be in the cards.

The ETF has been trading sideways since June 1 after a two-day rally on that day and the day prior caused NUGT to rebound 11.51% higher and negate a possible bear flag pattern.

The sideways trading action has caused NUGT to form a double inside bar pattern on the daily chart.

An inside bar pattern indicates a period of consolidation and is usually followed by a continuation move in the direction of the current trend.

An inside bar pattern has more validity on larger time frames (four-hour chart or larger). The pattern has a minimum of two candlesticks and consists of a mother bar (the first candlestick in the pattern) followed by one or more subsequent candles. The subsequent candle(s) must be completely inside the range of the mother bar and each is called an "inside bar."

A double, or triple inside bar can be more powerful than a single inside bar. After the break of an inside bar pattern, traders want to watch for high volume for confirmation the pattern was recognized.

NUGT is a double-leveraged fund that is designed to outperform the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index by 200%. The ETF tracks several gold and silver mining companies, with Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM), Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD) and Franco-Nevada Corp (NYSE:FNV) making up 26.62% of its holdings.

It should be noted that leveraged ETFs are meant to be used as a trading vehicle by experienced traders, as opposed to a long-term investment. Leveraged ETFs should never be used by an investor with a buy-and-hold strategy or those who have low-risk appetites.

For traders wanting to play the gold mining index bearishly, Direxion offers Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (NYSE:DUST).

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The NUGT Chart: NUGT negated its bear flag on June 1 by regaining the eight-day exponential moving average as support. The ETF is now trading above the area, forming a double inside bar pattern, which leans bullish because NUGT was trading higher before forming it.

Bullish traders want to see NUGT eventually break above the June 1 high-of-day on higher-than-average volume, which would confirm a new uptrend is on the horizon. Bearish traders want to see big bearish volume come in and break NUGT down from the mother bar, which could cause the ETF to back-test the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as support.
If NUGT were to fall under the 200-day SMA, the ETF could fall into a longer-term downtrend. If the ETF breaks higher, the NUGT is likely to find resistance, at least temporarily, at the 50-day SMA.
NUGT has resistance above at $41.31 and $44.32 and support below at $37.68 and $33.