Analysts Downgrade Rating On Qualtrics Post Takeover Deal; View Competing Bid At Higher Price Unlikely

Author: Anusuya Lahiri | March 14, 2023 02:08pm

• Raymond James analyst Brian Peterson downgrades Qualtrics International Inc (NASDAQ:XM) from Outperform to Market Perform.
• Silver Lake and CPP Investment agreed to take over Qualtrics for ~$12.5 billion cash at $18.15 per share. 
• The takeout price represents a 74% premium to the unadjusted share price preceding SAP SE's (NYSE:SAP) announcement on January 26 that it was exploring the sale of its stake in Qualtrics. 
• Peterson believes the takeout multiple at 7x CY23 revenue represents a fair takeout transaction when comparing comparable and recent transactions. 
• Given the low appetite for M&A from potential strategic buyers, the analyst also views a competing bid at a higher price as unlikely. 
• The deal will likely close in the second half of 2023, and shares currently trade at a 3% discount to the proposed takeout price.
• JMP Securities analyst Patrick Walravens downgrades Qualtrics from Market Outperform to Market Perform.
• While the analyst continues to like Qualtrics as he believes it offers an excellent product set for experience management and addresses a large TAM that the company estimates to be ~ $60 billion, he views the odds of a superior proposal to be low given the no-shop clause in the Merger Agreement and see shares as fairly valued.
• Walravens maintains his 2023 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $0.22 (consensus $0.22) on revenue growth of 14% and 2024 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $0.34 (consensus $0.31) on revenue growth of 14%.
• Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin downgrades Qualtrics from Overweight to Neutral with an $18.15 price target.
• Price Action: XM shares traded lower by 0.17% at $17.64 on the last check Tuesday.
• Photo Via Wikimedia Commons

Posted In: SAP XM